Former journalist and political blogger Gordon Opiyo has weighed in on the outcome of the Ol Kalou by-election, arguing that the loss suffered by President William Ruto’s UDA candidate, Samuel Muchina, reflects a broader political shift within the Mt Kenya region.
Speaking after the Thursday, July 16 vote, Opiyo dismissed claims of electoral malpractice, insisting that Kenya’s voting system remains transparent and difficult to manipulate.
He pointed to the structure of polling stations, where votes are counted publicly in the presence of agents and observers before results are transmitted.
“I keep repeating this... no one can steal elections in Kenya. It is literally impossible because everything is done at the polling centre, counted openly and signed by all agents before transmission,” he said.
Opiyo interpreted the Ol Kalou result as evidence that a section of Mt Kenya voters, particularly from the Kikuyu community, has withdrawn its support for Ruto.
According to him, this shift had been building up over time and was not unexpected.
“This result shows that the Kikuyu nation has left Ruto. Many of us have been saying this,” he added, framing the development as part of a larger realignment in national politics.
However, the analyst argued that while support from Mt Kenya may be declining, the President could be consolidating backing in other parts of the country.
He linked this to Ruto’s push for what he described as equitable distribution of development resources across regions.
Opiyo claimed that Ruto’s approach—emphasising development in historically marginalised areas such as Nyanza, Western, North Eastern and the Coast—has triggered resistance from sections of the Mt Kenya electorate.
He suggested that previous administrations were perceived to favour certain regions disproportionately, a trend Ruto has sought to reverse.
“When Ruto said every part of Kenya deserves development, including Luos, Luhyas, Somalis and the Coast, there was backlash and he was labelled a betrayer,” Opiyo stated.
The Ol Kalou by-election has drawn national attention as an early indicator of shifting political loyalties ahead of future contests.
While UDA had previously enjoyed strong backing in the Mt Kenya region during the 2022 General Election, the latest result raises questions about the durability of that support.