Defeating President William Ruto in the 2027 elections will not be an easy task, according to economic analyst Ephraim Njega, who has called on the opposition to adopt bold, unconventional strategies to build a winning coalition.
Speaking on the prospects of the United Opposition, Njega said, “Defeating William Ruto won't be a walk in the park. The opposition needs out-of-the-box ideas. They need to put in the work. That is why the progressive wing of ODM needs to be embraced quickly.”
Njega suggested that former ióó President Kalonzo Musyoka is emerging as the most likely presidential candidate for the United Opposition.
However, he emphasized that the choice of deputy president will be equally critical.
“Choosing his deputy will be equally difficult and of great strategic importance. That is why they should consider James Orengo for the DP position. This will have a lot of benefits,” Njega explained.
He noted that most opposition DP hopefuls hail from Bantu communities, creating what he termed a “diversity deficit” when paired with a Bantu presidential candidate. By selecting Orengo, a Luo politician with strong progressive credentials, the opposition could achieve ethnic balance and appeal to a broader voter base.
Njega highlighted the tactical implications for President Ruto, who is perceived to rely heavily on the Luo vote for reelection.
“If the opposition chooses Orengo, Ruto will be forced to choose a Luo DP. He will get into a similar diversity trap since it will be an all-Nilote ticket. Yet Ruto is desperate for the Luo vote as it is his only hope for reelection. He can't afford to antagonize them,” Njega said.
According to Njega, an Orengo selection could split the Luo vote, particularly if Ruto opts for a DP outside the Luo community.
“Orengo comes with a lot of progressive credentials and will add flavour to an otherwise conservative opposition. His choice will also split the Luo vote to an extent. Such a split will be deeper if Ruto doesn't choose a Luo deputy,” he added.
Addressing potential friction within the opposition, Njega downplayed concerns about sidelining other DP contenders, including former Cabinet Secretary Matiang’i.
“Going by the recent developments, Uhuru is likely to work with Gachagua. Matiang’i is Uhuru's candidate and will have no option but to toe the line,” he said.
Njega also stressed the importance of youth inclusion.
He proposed that a younger figure, such as Sifuna or Natembeya, be given a powerful role like the Prime CS position to galvanize the youth vote, which he described as “crucial in this election.”
Concluding his analysis, Njega warned that the current political climate is precarious. “If the opposition remains united and doesn't splinter after the lineup is announced, they stand a real chance of unseating Ruto.
The way the country is going, we are getting into desperate times. Politics of desperation will rule the day, and that is very dangerous for the regime,” he said.