Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi has delivered a blunt assessment of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) following its heavy defeat in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, framing the outcome as a reflection of shifting political ground in Mt Kenya.
The July 16 poll saw Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho secure a commanding victory with more than 35,000 votes, while the UDA candidate managed just over 5,000 — a result widely interpreted as a significant upset.
Ahmednasir argued the loss had been foreseeable from the outset.
“It was obvious from day one that the UDA candidate will be soundly beaten… Only the margin was being debated,” he stated.
He noted that early projections had placed UDA’s expected performance at between 25 and 35 per cent of the vote, but the final outcome — about 13 per cent — fell sharply below that range.
“Now that the dust has settled… 13% of the vote was an awful return for the billions spent and the false promises so recklessly made to the voters,” he added.
The senior counsel linked the outcome to what he described as a widening disconnect between President William Ruto and sections of the Mt Kenya electorate.
“The divorce between President Ruto and the Kikuyu community provided the background melody in UDA's calamitous showing,” he said.
He further pointed to voter resistance against alleged intimidation tactics during the campaign period.
“Ol Kalou voters strongly repudiated the thesis that voters can be forced by goons and other violent characters to vote for a preferred candidate,” Ahmednasir remarked.
On development pledges, he argued that campaign messaging failed to convince voters, particularly where promises appeared symbolic or short-term.
“The fake promises of unrealistic ‘development’ turned many voters… Voters rightly saw the lies and false promises made just to get their votes,” he said.
Ahmednasir also questioned the effectiveness of UDA’s campaign leadership, singling out former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria.
“Moses is effective in live TV shows… but he didn’t come out credible in rallies in rural Ol Kalou,” he observed.
Looking ahead, he suggested the results mirror broader political alignments shaping the 2027 General Election, where regional and ethnic voting patterns remain influential.
He referenced leaders such as Rigathi Gachagua and former President Uhuru Kenyatta as key figures shaping opinion in the region.
“Ol Kalou voters cried that their choice be respected,” he concluded, warning political actors to adapt to changing voter expectations.