Senior Counsel Nelson Havi has weighed in on the political implications of the Ol Kalou by-election, warning President William Ruto and his allies against dismissing shifting voter dynamics in the Mt Kenya region.
Havi’s remarks come in the wake of a decisive defeat for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate, who lost by a wide margin to the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) candidate in the Nyandarua contest.
The outcome has sparked fresh debate over the ruling party’s standing in a region considered critical to national electoral success.
In a statement, Havi criticised leaders from both UDA and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), describing the current political approach within the broad-based government as misguided.
“UDA and ODM leaders in the BreadBased Government are getting it wrong. HE Rigathi Gachagua is clear that he has the overwhelming support of Kikuyu voters which are 8 million,” Havi stated.
He argued that the by-election result serves as early evidence of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s influence in the region, cautioning against attempts to downplay the significance of the outcome.
“He has demonstrated that fact through the first by-election. Underrating that proven fact with reference to defeats in North Eastern, Nyanza and Western Kenya is foolhardy,” he added.
Havi further warned that President Ruto’s re-election prospects could be at risk if support from the Mt Kenya voting bloc declines.
According to him, the region’s numbers remain decisive in any national contest.
“The fact is that without 8 million solid votes which he previously had or even half of it, President William Ruto cannot be re-elected,” he said.
The senior counsel also linked the by-election outcome to reports of unrest and alleged heavy-handed security operations during the voting period.
He claimed that such actions could further alienate voters.
“His plight is further aggravated by the unnecessary violence meted on the people of Ol Kalou,” Havi noted.
He placed part of the blame on senior government officials, singling out Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale and other advisers, whom he accused of pushing a confrontational political strategy.
“CS Aden Duale and all those misadvising the President to chest thump will be his biggest downfall,” he stated.
The Ol Kalou by-election has since emerged as a key political signal, with analysts and leaders offering differing interpretations of its impact ahead of future electoral contests.