A simmering power struggle within ODM has come into sharp focus following a public fallout between Ruth Odinga and Treasury CS John Mbadi, with fresh claims pointing to years of internal tensions and political sidelining.
The dispute emerged after an ODM retreat in Mombasa, where Mbadi is said to have challenged the notion that the party belongs to the Odinga family and called for a shift toward a post-Raila Odinga era.
Ruth Odinga hit back days later, accusing him of disrespecting her brother’s legacy and undermining the family’s role in Kenya’s democratic journey.
Political analyst Kipkalya Kones now argues that Mbadi’s stance is rooted in past frustrations within the party.
He points to the period when Mbadi, then ODM chairman, was forced to drop his Homa Bay gubernatorial bid in favour of Gladys Wanga, despite believing he had the influence to secure the ticket.
According to Kones, that moment marked the beginning of a steady political decline for Mbadi within ODM ranks.
He was later nominated to Parliament but reportedly placed lower than expected on the party list. On entering the House, he lost the Minority Leader position to Opiyo Wandayi, a role he had previously held.
Mbadi would later face internal competition for the Public Accounts Committee chairmanship, in what Kones describes as a struggle for political footing after a series of setbacks.
The analyst says these experiences may explain Mbadi’s current posture and the tone of his remarks, which have stirred debate within ODM and beyond.
At the same time, the fallout has exposed a broader divide over the party’s identity and future.
One side leans toward preserving the Odinga family’s historical influence, while another is pushing for a transition to a broader leadership structure.
Kones argues that this divide reflects differing political traditions. He associates the Odinga camp with a legacy shaped by Kenya’s liberation struggle, marked by restraint and defined political limits.
In contrast, he describes Mbadi and his allies as operating within a more confrontational political environment, where influence is asserted through direct contest.
The remarks attributed to Mbadi, including references to Raila Odinga’s political relevance, have drawn strong reactions from sections of ODM supporters, further deepening the divide.
Attention has now shifted to the possibility of reconciliation. Kones expresses skepticism, noting that political fallouts in Kenya have rarely ended in unity.
He suggests that emerging factions within ODM could chart separate paths, especially as succession politics gather pace.
Even so, Ruth Odinga has attracted support from those who view her response as a defense of the family’s contribution to Kenya’s political history.
The unfolding dispute leaves ODM facing a delicate moment, with internal tensions playing out in public.
The outcome could shape not only the party’s leadership but also its direction in the years ahead.