Lawyer Willis Otieno has criticized the government’s plan to sell 15% of Safaricom shares to Vodacom, saying the rationale presented by Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi ignores Kenya’s strategic and historical realities.
Speaking on Wednesday, Otieno described the sale as a “classic technocratic argument” that appears sound in theory but falters under scrutiny.
Otieno questioned the claim that Vodacom paying a premium makes the transaction beneficial for Kenya. He argued that strategic investors pay premiums to consolidate their own influence rather than strengthen the state.
“Safaricom is not a struggling start-up; it is a cash-generating monopoly. Selling more shares to the same foreign entity entrenches dependency and diminishes national leverage,” Otieno said.
He also warned against relying on Vodacom’s “institutional memory” as a safeguard.
According to Otieno, embedding a foreign company deeper into national infrastructure reduces the government’s bargaining power.
“Safaricom’s networks underpin money transfers, communications, and elections. Treating this as a normal corporate transaction is either naïve or evasive,” he added.
The lawyer highlighted that global trends show countries retaining control over critical digital infrastructure, citing China, India, Singapore, and South Korea as examples.
He said Kenya’s approach, which assumes enforceable safeguards, is unrealistic.
“There are no enforceable protections for data sovereignty, revenue repatriation, or foreign influence in Kenya. Expecting the government to manage this effectively is overly optimistic,” Otieno warned.
His critique raises questions about the long-term implications of the divestment, especially regarding national control and strategic decision-making in Kenya’s largest telecom operator.
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