Concerns about the future of Kenya’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) have emerged following its 20th-anniversary celebrations, with NTV journalist Frederick Muitiriri warning that internal divisions could threaten the party’s stability within a year.
Muitiriri observed that ODM appears to be splitting into two main factions. One camp consists of leaders currently serving in government, focused on maintaining their positions.
He highlighted Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga, who has openly expressed comfort with his government roles, even during the late Raila Odinga’s leadership.
The second faction, according to Muitiriri, may be shaped by family influence within the Odinga household.
Mama Ida, a historically powerful figure in the party, has remained silent on ODM’s direction but may be exerting influence through her daughter, Winnie Odinga.
Muitiriri also noted the bold stance of ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, who publicly criticized the government during the anniversary events.
The journalist suggested that such open dissent would have been unlikely under Raila Odinga, reflecting a change in party discipline and internal authority.
ODM has played a central role in Kenya’s opposition politics since its formation in 2003, consistently shaping electoral debates and political alliances at national and regional levels.
The 20th-anniversary celebrations in Mombasa were intended to highlight party unity, but Muitiriri’s observations suggest emerging tensions may challenge that cohesion.
He warned that if disagreements continue unchecked, ODM’s influence could diminish within a year.
Muitiriri further noted that President William Ruto could face political implications should the party fragment, given its continued prominence as the main opposition.