Political analyst Kipkalya Kones has weighed in on Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s political future, arguing that the senator’s growing political profile could become the driving force behind a new political movement or party.
Kones said the growing debate over the possibility of Sifuna establishing his own political party was evidence of the attention surrounding the ODM secretary-general and his political activities.
“People are launching parties and renaming others, but everyone is asking ‘na wapi ya Sifuna?’ The el nino is coming!” Kones said.
His remarks come amid renewed political activity around parties and movements as politicians position themselves ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Kones questioned the effectiveness of attempts to prevent popular political movements from acquiring formal party structures, arguing that Kenya’s multiparty history demonstrates that political parties often derive their strength from the personalities leading them.
He cited the political fortunes of parties associated with prominent leaders, including Ford Kenya, Ford Asili and the Democratic Party, to illustrate his argument.
According to Kones, Ford Kenya was closely associated with the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, while Ford Asili was strongly identified with Kenneth Matiba. He also argued that the Democratic Party lost much of its political significance after former President Mwai Kibaki moved away from it.
Kones similarly pointed to Raila Odinga’s political career as an example of how a leader’s personal following can shape the fortunes of political parties.
He recalled the 2003 political disagreements within the Liberal Democratic Party faction of the National Rainbow Coalition, citing former Cabinet minister John Michuki’s famous remark that any ministry given to Raila would become highly visible because of the attention surrounding him.
“Everyone who joined ODM in the last 20 years was joining Raila, not the party,” Kones said, arguing that followers often identify more closely with a leader and the ideals associated with them than with the formal name of a political party.
Turning to Sifuna, Kones argued that the senator could similarly become the central figure around whom a new political movement develops.
He said the name chosen for a prospective party would matter less than the personality, ideas and political message of its leader.
Kones also addressed calls for political negotiations to be limited to presidential candidates, supporting the argument that parties without significant national support should not automatically demand government concessions.
He said Kenya’s multiparty system should evolve beyond what he described as negotiations involving parties with minimal electoral support, arguing that political influence should be linked to demonstrable support at the ballot.
“That season passed,” Kones said.