Veteran journalist Linus Kaikai has cast doubt on the future of the political cooperation framework between William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), arguing that the pact’s 10-point agenda has effectively collapsed following the political exit of Raila Odinga.
Speaking during the News Gang show on Citizen TV on Thursday night, Kaikai said the political arrangement that once underpinned cooperation between the two rival camps has lost its balance after Raila stepped away from active politics last year.
According to Kaikai, the framework relied heavily on the political weight of the ODM leader to maintain equilibrium between the two sides.
“The 10-point agenda could not survive the death of Raila Odinga because, in political tugging and pulling, the weight of both ends has to be either equal or proportionate,” Kaikai said.
He argued that the absence of Raila has fundamentally altered the dynamics of the agreement, leaving ODM without the political leverage it previously wielded in negotiations with the ruling party.
Kaikai said that without Raila’s influence, the balance of power now tilts heavily in favor of President Ruto.
“The absence of Raila Odinga makes this entire team, they are chasing a mirage. President Ruto will have his say, will have his way, the way he wants it, because Raila is not around,” he said.
Kaikai also questioned the ability of Oburu Oginga, who has been involved in leading ODM’s participation in the cooperation framework, to command the same political authority as Raila.
“Dr. Oburu Odinga is not Raila Odinga; he does not have the same weight as Raila Odinga. The ODM side is completely weakened,” Kaikai added.
His remarks come days after leaders from UDA and ODM held a joint parliamentary group meeting in Nairobi, where they reviewed the progress of the 10-point agenda and discussed mechanisms to accelerate its implementation.
The meeting brought together lawmakers from both parties and focused on national priorities outlined in the cooperation framework, including electoral reforms, economic recovery, and governance issues.
Leaders also resolved to extend the mandate of the oversight team monitoring implementation of the agenda, giving it additional time to finalize outstanding issues.
However, Kaikai questioned the decision to extend the timeline for the agreement, arguing that the political conditions that once sustained the arrangement no longer exist.
“Stop delaying the country on this thing called the 10-point agenda because it is misleading,” he said.
“The time was extended by another three months, for what? To achieve what?”
According to the journalist, ODM’s bargaining power within the arrangement has significantly diminished following Raila’s departure from the political stage.
“The bargaining power of ODM is gone. What President William Ruto will do is what he chooses to do,” Kaikai said.
He further argued that the party should have anticipated the situation once Raila stepped aside from frontline politics in October last year.
“When Raila exited the stage last year in October, they should have expected this. ODM is in no position to negotiate as an equal anymore,” Kaikai said.
The UDA-ODM cooperation pact has been one of the most closely watched political developments in Kenya, with supporters arguing it promotes stability and bipartisan dialogue, while critics say it risks weakening the country’s opposition politics.