President William Ruto could throw Kenya’s opposition into disarray in 2027 by choosing not to defend his presidency and instead positioning himself as a kingmaker, journalist Kwamchetsi Makokha has argued.
In a political thought experiment ahead of the 2027 General Election, Makokha suggested that Ruto’s decision not to appear on the ballot could force opposition leaders to confront an internal succession battle they have so far avoided.
His argument comes as political attention increasingly shifts towards the contest to succeed Ruto, with several opposition figures positioning themselves for the presidency while others seek to build alliances ahead of the polls.
Makokha noted that the political significance of October could also shape the national conversation, particularly as Kenya prepares to mark the first anniversary of the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
“William Ruto has done everything to honour Raila in death. He gave him a state funeral, awarded him the Chief of the Order of the Golden Heart, named a stadium in his honour and swallowed the Orange Democratic Movement party into his government,” Makokha said.
He argued that Ruto could take the political reconciliation with ODM even further by backing Raila’s brother and ODM leader Oburu Oginga for the presidency in 2027.
According to Makokha, such a move would reinforce the political symbolism of the Ruto-Raila rapprochement while allowing the President to avoid the political costs associated with seeking re-election.
“If he were now to suggest that ODM leader Oburu Oginga should be president in 2027 instead of him, he would have proved his sincerity ahead of Uhuru Kenyatta. Then he could preserve himself for a second run in 2032,” he argued.
Makokha's central argument is that much of the opposition’s political mobilisation has been built around removing Ruto from State House, rather than agreeing on a single alternative candidate.
“For the past several years, the opposition has been organising itself around one proposition: Ruto must go,” he said.
He argued that the message had allowed politicians with competing ambitions and political interests to work together without resolving the question of who should ultimately lead their coalition.
However, if Ruto withdrew from the race, Makokha believes opposition leaders would immediately be forced to compete against one another.
“The question would no longer be, ‘How do we defeat Ruto?’ It would be, ‘Which one of us should be president?’ and why?” he said.
Such a scenario, he argued, could reopen regional negotiations, trigger fresh alliances and expose competing ambitions within opposition ranks.
Makokha further suggested that Ruto could transform himself from a presidential candidate into a political kingmaker, allowing his preferred successor to carry the burden of defending the government’s record.
He said the strategy could shield Ruto from direct criticism over taxation, government policies and other unpopular decisions while giving him time to rebuild his political standing outside State House.
However, Makokha acknowledged a major risk: a successor backed by Ruto could develop an independent political base and become unwilling to hand power back to him in 2032.
“Once you hand someone the keys to State House, they tend to discover that the house is rather comfortable,” he said.
He argued that the successor would enjoy the advantages of incumbency and could use five years in office to establish a coalition of their own.
For Makokha, however, the bigger political question is whether Ruto could benefit from stepping away from the presidency temporarily.
He suggested that after five years outside State House, Ruto could potentially return to the political arena as an alternative to the establishment rather than its symbol.
Makokha concluded that the opposition should prepare for a 2027 election in which Ruto may not be its main target.
“Ruto would not have to defeat the opposition. He would merely have to give it the presidency to fight over,” he said.
“That would be the real snooker: not defeating the opposition, but making them defeat one another.”