Political analyst Kipkalya Kones has warned that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is grappling with severe internal divisions, despite appearances of unity crafted through heavy spending and public relations efforts.
According to Kones, the party’s façade of cohesion masks a web of rivalries that threaten to destabilize its operations ahead of crucial leadership appointments.
Kones highlighted multiple disputes within the party, beginning with leadership tussles in Busia and Kakamega counties. Governor Paul Otuoma of Busia reportedly seeks to replace Osotsi as Deputy Party Leader (DPL).
However, Catherine Omanyo, also from Busia, is contesting the position of Secretary General (SG).
Otuoma has allegedly encouraged Omanyo to step aside, but she has resisted, citing the principle of “kontututunalism” as empowering women within the party.
To navigate this standoff, Otuoma is said to support Nabii Nabwera of Kakamega for SG. This, however, has inflamed tensions with Governor Fernandes Barasa of Kakamega, who leads a rival faction alongside Nabii.
Barasa has threatened severe consequences if Nabii ascends to the SG position.
The overlapping ambitions of Otuoma, Barasa, and Nabii illustrate a fractious environment, with rival factions controlling parallel structures within Kakamega.
Kones also pointed to a “silent war” in Kisumu County. Disputes erupted when former Senator Oburu Oginga canceled county elections after MP Gladys Wanga submitted her own list of delegates.
Supporters of Oburu clashed with Wanga loyalists, who dismissed Oburu’s influence and insisted that Wanga holds the real power in the county.
The rivalry intensified when Oburu backers began claiming that if ODM negotiates for a deputy presidential position with UDA, it should go to him.
The move has reportedly unsettled the Wanga faction, highlighting how internal squabbles are affecting broader party negotiations.
The divisions were visible even during public events. Kones noted that when Wanga hosted Deputy President William Ruto in Homa Bay, Oburu avoided the gathering, choosing instead to be installed as a local elder of the “Kawuor clan,” a minor subclan.
The symbolic downgrade from party leadership to village-level recognition underscores the depth of personal and factional disagreements within ODM.
Further tension looms along Kenya’s coast. Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho has reportedly drawn a firm line over the deputy presidential position, signaling that ODM’s influence in the region may face resistance if local interests are ignored.
Similarly, National Assembly Majority Leader John Mbadi is reportedly asserting his own claims, intensifying the competition for strategic positions.
Kones concluded that ODM’s internal conflicts, long masked by a common adversary in Nairobi politics, will become more visible once shared opposition wanes.
“The energy directed at the common enemy usually hides deep internal divisions,” Kones said, warning that the party could struggle to maintain cohesion if its leadership disputes remain unresolved.