As Kenya gears up for the 2027 general elections, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) faces increasing scrutiny over its ability to negotiate a pre-election coalition with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Political analysts have raised concerns over the party’s bargaining power, citing deepening internal divisions that have spilled into the public domain.
Speaking to People Daily, political analyst Martin Oloo argued that ODM currently lacks the leverage to influence coalition talks.
“I don’t think they even have bargaining power. Forget about what it will reduce because the person who had bargaining power was Raila. Raila is not on site. They don’t have numbers; they don’t have the power,” Oloo said, referring to former party leader Raila Odinga.
Oloo’s assessment comes amid visible factionalism within the party, with rival groups increasingly presenting conflicting positions on alliances and strategy.
Analysts suggest that this fragmentation undermines the party’s credibility as a coalition partner and complicates its capacity to negotiate effectively with UDA, which has positioned itself as a dominant force in national politics.
Charles Munyui, another political analyst, echoed these concerns, emphasizing that ODM’s divisions have eroded its negotiating stance.
“The numbers that are being displayed out there by a section of the same party shows it has lost,” Munyui noted.
According to Munyui, the lack of a unified voice within ODM means the party cannot confidently enter discussions with UDA without risking internal dissent and possible defections.
The analysts warn that the absence of a cohesive strategy could leave ODM marginalized in coalition talks, potentially diminishing its influence ahead of the 2027 polls.
While ODM has historically been a key player in shaping political alliances in Kenya, the current vacuum in leadership and unified direction raises questions about its ability to replicate past successes.
For ODM, the window to consolidate its factions and present a coherent front may be narrowing, with political commentators warning that failure to do so could have lasting consequences for the party’s electoral relevance.
As the 2027 general elections approach, all eyes will remain on how ODM navigates its internal disputes and whether it can reclaim its standing as a significant political negotiator capable of influencing Kenya’s coalition landscape.