Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has offered a mixed assessment of the 2027 presidential race, saying early political numbers suggest a tightly contested contest that could swing in either direction, while still projecting President William Ruto as the current frontrunner if elections were held today.
Speaking during an interview on Citizen TV on Wednesday night, Kuria said electoral outcomes are shaped by both qualitative and quantitative factors, warning against overreliance on early political projections as alliances continue to evolve ahead of the polls.
“There are a lot of qualitative arguments around the 2027 election than quantitative. I have done number crunching for Kibaki, Uhuru and Ruto, I’m too old to get it wrong right now. Right now my number crunching is telling me that this election can go either way,” Kuria said.
The former Trade and Investments CS, who has previously played a central role in shaping political strategies within government circles, noted that Kenya’s political landscape remains fluid, with voter sentiment, regional dynamics, and emerging coalitions expected to significantly influence the final outcome.
Despite his projection of a close race, Kuria maintained that current indicators still favour the Head of State.
“If elections were held today, William Ruto would win, based on my numbers, without blinking an eye lid,” he added.
His remarks come at a time when political realignments are beginning to take shape across the country, with various leaders positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 general election.
Kuria’s comments are likely to fuel further debate within political circles, particularly on the reliability of early election projections in a country where voting patterns often shift closer to election day.
As the 2027 race slowly takes shape, attention is expected to remain on emerging coalitions and the performance of the Kenya Kwanza administration, both of which are likely to play a decisive role in shaping voter sentiment in the coming years.