Former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has stirred political debate after making strong remarks on Kenya’s shifting succession politics during an interview on Citizen TV, where he assessed the numerical strength of emerging political formations ahead of 2027.
Kuria argued that the “broad-based” alliance aligned to President William Ruto maintains a significant national advantage, even without votes from the Mt Kenya region.
He said that when certain counties are grouped and others treated as opposition or battleground areas, the ruling formation still retains a clear lead.
“If I take the 26 counties of broad-based and the 14 counties which I am donating all of them to opposition… then you remove the seven counties which are going to be battle zones, the broad-based has got a one million voter advantage already as we speak,” Kuria said.
He maintained that Mt Kenya, despite its historical political weight, is not decisive on its own in determining the outcome of a presidential race.
According to him, the numbers still favour the ruling coalition even in the absence of votes from the region.
“My math shows that the broad-based can win without a single vote from Mt Kenya,” he said.
Kuria also criticised what he described as exaggerated political messaging in the Mt Kenya region, arguing that some leaders are shaping perceptions that do not reflect electoral reality.
He warned against what he termed misleading political persuasion that may distort voter expectations.
He pointed a finger at Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, accusing him of leveraging regional sentiment for political advantage.
“Gachagua is a good snake oil salesman; he knows the figures like I do… he hypnotises the people of Mt Kenya to believe William Ruto is going home,” Kuria said.
He further claimed that some political actors are focused on building long-term dominance in Parliament and county leadership positions, including governors, senators, MPs, women representatives and MCAs, as part of a broader strategy to maintain influence beyond elections.
Kuria compared this approach to attempts at building a central political authority capable of influencing successive governments through numerical strength in legislative structures.
He also referenced broader national political figures, stating that only one leader fits the “Baba” political identity in modern Kenyan politics, pointing to ODM leader Raila Odinga.
“There can only be one Baba in our generation, and the only one I know is in Kang’o ka Jaramogi in Bondo,” he said.
His remarks come amid growing political positioning across rival camps ahead of the next general election, with leaders increasingly focusing on regional alliances and numerical strategies as succession politics takes shape.