Former journalist Gordon Opiyo has issued a stark assessment of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), warning that the party risks losing political relevance ahead of the 2027 General Election unless it rethinks its strategy following Thursday’s Central Management Committee meeting.
In his remarks, Opiyo drew from Kenya’s political history, recalling key realignments involving former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during the Moi era and the early multiparty period.
“I actively covered political events during the Moi–Raila handshake that ended up in NDP joining KANU, and Raila becoming KANU Secretary General, replacing Kamotho,” he said.
He noted that former Cabinet Minister James Orengo strongly opposed the arrangement and instead ran for president in 1997, where he garnered 24,524 votes nationwide.
Opiyo argued that Raila’s decision to work within KANU was a calculated political strategy aimed at gaining influence and access to state power.
He said Raila consistently explained the move in various interviews, framing it as a path toward political leverage.
According to him, the 2002 political realignment remains misunderstood, arguing that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had significant grassroots strength that is often overlooked in official narratives.
He added that internal disagreements within the winning coalition at the time changed the final outcome of that election cycle.
Turning to the present, Opiyo described ODM’s current position as weakened, saying the party has become overly dependent on Raila Odinga’s personal influence.
“ODM is in a pretty bad shape. Without Raila, ODM is literally dead,” he stated.
He argued that ODM’s support base has historically followed Raila across multiple political formations over the years, including KANU, KPU, Ford Kenya, NDP, LDP, Narc, and ODM itself, suggesting that the movement is driven more by personality than party structure.
Opiyo also pointed to signs of internal strain within ODM, citing public disagreements among leaders and what he described as declining party discipline.
He further claimed that some ODM-aligned leaders are already shifting political calculations ahead of 2027, arguing that politicians in Western Kenya are increasingly engaging directly with President William Ruto’s camp.
On governance performance, Opiyo faulted ODM-affiliated governors, saying weak delivery in regions such as Nyanza could complicate the party’s political messaging going into the next election.
He warned that this situation could make it difficult for ODM to convince voters on what it is offering as an alternative.
Opiyo concluded by urging remaining ODM leaders to rethink their approach, suggesting that political alignment with a stronger formation could be more effective than attempting to operate independently.
He referenced Raila’s past political strategy shifts, saying that adapting to prevailing power structures has historically been key to gaining influence in Kenyan politics.