Internal divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) risk weakening the party’s political leverage ahead of the 2027 General Election, legal and political analyst Javas Bigambo says.
Bigambo cautioned that the fray goes beyond losing a coveted Deputy President (DP) slot in national negotiations — it strikes at the core of the party’s ability to negotiate effectively in Kenya’s evolving political landscape.
Bigambo told People Daily that persistent infighting within key leadership ranks could erode ODM’s bargaining power with prospective allies.
“As long as the Sifuna group continues to go in that direction, as long as the party leader does not see how to quell the fragmentation from within, then the issue of harmonious bargaining for the party is going to face a challenge,” he said.
The comment comes amid a deepening contest between rival camps inside ODM over strategic direction and leadership.
A growing faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna — recently at the centre of a controversial removal as party Secretary General — is resisting moves by the leadership under Acting Party Leader Dr. Oburu Oginga to align more closely with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ahead of 2027.
Sifuna’s camp has rejected a Ruto alliance, instead espousing a “Linda Mwananchi” movement that champions the party’s autonomy and insists ODM should field its own presidential ticket.
Recent rallies under this banner have drawn supporters and highlighted sharp policy and generational differences within the party.
The leadership faction around Oburu and party chair Gladys Wanga has emphasised pragmatic engagement with the ruling administration, arguing that staying in broad‑based governance improves ODM’s influence and policy outcomes.
The leadership has sought to reassure members of unity, insisting departures from the party should be voluntary while negotiating coalition arrangements.
Analysts, including Bigambo, say these public disputes — from contested leadership authority to divergent political strategy — risk presenting ODM as fractured at a time when unity would strengthen its negotiating hand.
If unresolved, they argue, fragmentation could diminish the party’s authority in coalition talks and undermine its historical strength in national politics.
The debates within ODM reflect broader tensions in Kenya’s party politics as major parties recalibrate alliances and strategies in the run‑up to the 2027 polls.