A new poll by Mizani Africa has placed Samburu County at the centre of early political calculations after a significant share of residents said they had not yet aligned themselves with any presidential candidate.
The organisation reports that 20 percent of voters remain uncommitted, a figure that could influence the direction of national campaigns as the country edges toward the next General Election.
According to the poll, President William Ruto currently enjoys the strongest support in the county, securing 56 percent of presidential preference. Mizani Africa attributes the lead to established political networks and messaging that appears to resonate with pastoralist communities.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i follows at 10.7 percent, while Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka records 5.3 percent.
The results place Samburu among the counties where voter movements could reshape calculations for candidates seeking to strengthen their national coalitions.
Historically, regions in the northern Rift Valley have aligned with parties that demonstrate visible local outreach and deliver targeted development commitments.
The presence of a large undecided bloc suggests that voter preferences may shift if engagement in the region intensifies.
Party positioning in the county also reflects the broader national landscape. Mizani Africa’s data shows the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ahead with 48.7 percent, continuing its dominance in former Jubilee strongholds.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) holds 26 percent, maintaining its role as the primary opposition alternative in the area. The Democratic Congress Party (DCP) follows at 4.7 percent.
Despite UDA’s advantage, 13.3 percent of respondents say they do not identify with any political party.
This group could become crucial for parties aiming to expand their influence beyond traditional bases.
Mizani Africa’s update highlights the importance of monitoring county-level trends as political realignment continues across the country.
The organisation states that its findings reflect attitudes at the time of publication and may evolve as campaigns roll out new messaging and local leaders intensify mobilisation efforts.
The poll adds to the growing body of early political data expected to guide strategy for candidates and parties hoping to secure footholds in competitive regions ahead of the next electoral cycle.