Veteran journalist Linus Kaikai has weighed in on the latest TIFA poll, arguing that the current presidential rankings reflect an early and highly fluid race ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Speaking during a Thursday night edition of the News Gang show, Kaikai cautioned against reading too much into the numbers, noting that all leading contenders remain far from consolidating decisive national support.
“When all the presidential aspirants, including the incumbent, when their numbers are lower than their body temperature, it just tells you it is still very early,” Kaikai said.
The latest TIFA survey places President William Ruto in the lead with 24 percent support, followed by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 percent.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i comes in third at 14 percent, while Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna registers 10 percent despite not formally declaring his candidacy.
Kaikai singled out Sifuna’s performance as one of the most notable outcomes of the poll.
“The person who should be happy is Edwin Sifuna, who has not declared, and without saying anything, is at 10 percent,” he observed.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua trails at 9 percent, while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino posts 2 percent.
A significant portion of respondents, about 15 percent, remain undecided, underscoring the uncertainty that still defines the race.
According to Kaikai, Kenya’s electoral history shows that presidential contests are often decided much later in the political cycle, making current standings provisional at best.
“Elections in this country since 2002 have been decided very late into the election calendar,” he said. “It is very early, and those numbers will change faster than the weather numbers.”
His remarks align with TIFA’s broader assessment that the race remains fragmented, with no candidate commanding dominant national appeal at this stage.
The polling data suggests that voter preferences are still evolving, with alliances, campaign strategies, and emerging political dynamics expected to significantly reshape the landscape.
The findings also highlight the strategic importance of coalition-building, particularly within the opposition, where potential pairings could influence voter alignment in the coming months.