A new survey published by The Sunday Standard on May 16 has painted a challenging political landscape for President William Ruto, indicating declining support and a potential run-off scenario in the 2027 General Election.
According to the poll, Ruto commands 24 per cent of voter support, placing him ahead of individual opposition figures but significantly below the 50 per cent plus one threshold required to secure a first-round presidential victory.
The findings suggest that while the opposition remains divided, a united front could pose a serious threat to the incumbent.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka ranks second with 19 per cent, followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna garners 10 per cent, while Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua trails with 9 per cent. Embakasi East MP Babu Owino registers 2 per cent, with other candidates collectively accounting for 3 per cent.
The survey highlights a key political dynamic: fragmentation within the opposition. Individually, opposition leaders lag behind Ruto, but combined, they command a majority 57 per cent support.
Analysts note that this advantage remains theoretical unless the leaders agree on a single candidate.
The report further suggests that the President is increasingly engaging in strategic political maneuvers, including outreach to opposition figures, in an effort to consolidate his base ahead of 2027.
However, such efforts may not be sufficient if opposition unity is achieved.
“The numbers indicate a competitive race that could extend to a run-off,” the report notes, raising the possibility of a second round if no candidate attains an outright majority.
The findings come amid growing political realignments and early campaign activities across the country.
With more than a year before the next election cycle gains full momentum, the data signals a fluid and unpredictable contest.