A political analyst has raised concerns over the future of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), warning that recent resolutions by the party’s Central Management Committee could expose it to political absorption ahead of the 2027 General Election.
In his remarks, political analyst Samuel Mwangi linked the party’s latest moves—including nationwide mobilisation, youth conventions, and grassroots elections—to a broader strategy by President William Ruto and his ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
ODM, currently led by Oburu Odinga, on Thursday unveiled a series of resolutions aimed at strengthening its structures and expanding its political footprint.
The party announced plans for countrywide tours in at least 25 counties, alongside youth-focused engagements and internal elections to resolve disputes and streamline leadership.
However, Mwangi argues that the developments should be viewed with caution, particularly in the context of ODM’s evolving relationship with UDA.
“I have studied William Ruto for some time now. Before crossing over to his side, decide whether you’re doing it for money or for conviction,” Mwangi stated.
He alleged that political alignments driven by financial incentives often follow a predictable cycle that ultimately erodes credibility among leaders and their supporters.
“If it’s money, it usually comes in installments… the cycle repeats until your credibility is reduced to nothing. You no longer recognize yourself, and those who once followed you completely lose trust in you,” he added.
The remarks come at a time when ODM has signalled openness to political cooperation while simultaneously asserting its independence ahead of 2027.
The party has maintained that it will field candidates in future elections and ensure transparent nominations, in what observers interpret as an attempt to retain internal cohesion.
Mwangi, however, warned that such positioning may not shield the party from what he described as a calculated political strategy by the ruling side.
“The next move by Ruto is to buy party officials and sign a coalition with them, effectively dissolving ODM. UDA will simply add a tiny orange to the wheelbarrow symbol and call it a merger,” he claimed.
He further suggested that such a move would neutralise the risk of political fallout from within ODM, particularly from leaders who may reconsider their alliances.
“Why? Because he cannot afford you walking out on him at the last minute,” Mwangi stated.
ODM’s recent warning to UDA over what it termed as “disrespectful remarks” from some of its leaders points to underlying tensions, even as both sides have previously hinted at possible cooperation.
The analyst also cast doubt on public political narratives, arguing that media reports often fail to capture the full dynamics behind party decisions and alliances.
“In politics, whatever you read in the news is most times completely different from reality,” he said, adding that grassroots dissatisfaction could emerge if expectations within political deals are not met.
“What you are looking at… are people crying out, ‘What happened to our maintenance fee?’” Mwangi remarked.