Tensions within the Kenya Kwanza–ODM working arrangement have escalated, with fresh remarks by Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi adding a new dimension to an already fragile political détente.
His comments come in the wake of a report by Daily Nation highlighting growing mistrust between the two sides, raising questions about the durability of the so-called broad-based government.
According to the report, ODM signaled dissatisfaction with the current arrangement, warning it could reconsider its position if alleged efforts to weaken the party persist.
National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed cautioned that ODM “has options” should the union collapse, pointing to internal grievances over claims that some actors within government are attempting to lure ODM legislators into UDA while isolating the party politically.
The remarks have been interpreted by analysts as a sign of deepening cracks within the alliance that was initially framed as a unity platform to stabilize governance.
ODM maintains it joined the arrangement voluntarily to promote national cohesion, but now suggests the original intent may be under strain.
Weighing in on the unfolding developments, Ahmednasir offered a blunt assessment of Kenya’s political structure, arguing that attempts to build a dominant national party may be unrealistic.
Instead, he proposed a zoning approach, where political parties maintain influence within their traditional strongholds.
“To maximize presidential votes,” he stated, political actors must allow regional parties to dominate their respective areas, emphasizing that Kenya remains largely organized along ethnic and regional lines.
He argued that pushing a single party, such as UDA, into regions historically aligned with other parties could trigger political backlash, including defections by leaders and their supporters.
Ahmednasir cited examples of regional political dynamics, suggesting that parties such as UDM, ODM, and FORD-Kenya should retain influence in their respective zones, while UDA consolidates its base in Rift Valley.
His remarks align with a long-standing debate in Kenyan politics over whether national cohesion is best achieved through broad coalitions or recognition of regional political realities.
Political observers note that his position may resonate with leaders wary of aggressive party expansion strategies, particularly in regions where political loyalty is deeply entrenched.
However, critics argue that such zoning could entrench ethnic divisions and undermine efforts to build national unity.
The developments come at a critical time for President William Ruto, whose administration has emphasized inclusivity under the broad-based government framework.
Any fallout with ODM, led by Raila Odinga, could significantly reshape the political landscape ahead of the 2027 general election.