The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) continues to grapple with internal divisions, with competing positions on President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid shaping the party’s future following the death of its longtime leader Raila Odinga in 2025.
Speaking on Citizen TV’s Newsgang on Thursday night, senior journalist Linus Kaikai said the tensions are driven by clear political calculation rather than ideology.
According to Kaikai, ODM is split between members who support President Ruto securing a second term and those who are determined to oppose him in the next General Election.
“What is going on in ODM is very simple,” Kaikai said. “ODM is divided between those who support a second term for President Ruto and those who don’t.”
Kaikai noted that the divisions are unfolding at a critical moment for the party, which is still adjusting to life without Raila Odinga, its founding leader and political anchor for nearly two decades.
In his absence, ODM lacks a single unifying figure capable of enforcing discipline or settling strategic disputes.
He argued that President Ruto has fundamentally altered ODM’s internal dynamics by extending the party access to real state power, a scenario Kaikai said ODM has not experienced since its formation in 2007.
Unlike previous arrangements, this engagement has gone beyond symbolic inclusion, placing some ODM figures close to actual decision-making within government.
“This is a test of real power, not tokenism,” Kaikai observed.
The development, he said, has created a powerful incentive for a pro-Ruto faction within ODM to push for deeper cooperation with the Kenya Kwanza administration. Kaikai predicted that this group is likely to intensify demands for more influence, positions, and policy concessions as 2027 approaches.
However, another faction remains wary, arguing that aligning with Ruto risks eroding ODM’s identity and alienating supporters who view the party as an alternative to the current government.