President Ruto. Photo/Courtesy
A major US federal investigation into Somali-linked fraud in Minnesota has captured the attention of Kenyans in the diaspora, with some seeing unexpected political and financial implications for President William Ruto.
The probe targets alleged misuse of federal social service funds, including childcare subsidies and Medicaid, with assets traced back to individuals with ties to Kenya.
George Watson, a Kenyan based in the United States, believes the investigation may provide President Ruto with unprecedented advantages.
“President Ruto is the luckiest Kenyan alive,” Watson said. “The Minnesota situation has handed him two major wins he never asked for—or maybe he did.”
Watson points first to the handling of seized Somali assets. With the US Department of Justice and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) tracing properties linked to the fraud, Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties (MLATs) could allow Kenya to access some proceeds.
“Translation: all those properties could end up under President Ruto’s influence if Kenya cooperates with US authorities,” Watson explained.
The second potential advantage, according to Watson, is political.
He suggests the US investigation could weaken the influence of entrenched Somali figures in Kenya’s economic and political landscape.
“The full weight of the US federal machinery may neutralize some of the Somali kingpins,” he said, adding that this could give President Ruto a rare opportunity to recalibrate the so-called Somali factor in Kenyan politics.
The Minnesota case has already resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in seized funds, with dozens of individuals charged or convicted.
While the majority involved are of Somali descent, the financial links to Kenya have sparked interest among Kenyan authorities and diaspora observers.
Watson argues that the situation positions President Ruto to consolidate both political and economic influence.
“In ways never before possible, this could strengthen the president’s control and diminish opposition leverage,” he said.
Political analysts, however, caution that while the Minnesota case may open doors, it also carries legal and diplomatic complexities.
Proper cooperation between Kenya and the US will be crucial in ensuring any potential benefits comply with international law.
For now, Kenyans are watching closely, as Watson predicts: “Revisit this story by the end of 2026, and you will see how much the political landscape in Kenya may have shifted.”