Senior counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi has predicted that President William Ruto will secure re-election in the 2027 General Election, although he expects the contest to be significantly tougher than it would have been under a more aggressive reform agenda.
Ahmednasir said Ruto could still cross the constitutional 50 per cent plus one threshold required to win the presidency, but suggested the President would have to endure a difficult campaign before securing a second term.
“Come August 2027, InshaAllah H. E William Ruto will be re-elected for a second matter. But he will make it the difficult way...the usual 50 plus 1 struggle of pain and suffering,” Ahmednasir said.
The lawyer argued that Ruto's electoral prospects would have been stronger had his administration undertaken what he described as “root and branch” reforms, particularly in addressing corruption, governance and law and order.
Ahmednasir said the President should have pursued wealthy individuals suspected of accumulating their fortunes through public resources, including billionaires associated with former President Uhuru Kenyatta's administration.
He also called for the prosecution and imprisonment of governors accused of stealing public funds, as well as officials in State corporations whose wealth, he argued, is disproportionate to Kenya's economic circumstances.
On the Judiciary, Ahmednasir used the term “JurisPESA” to refer to what he described as corrupt judicial officials. He said the administration should have taken action against officials involved in judicial corruption, claiming he had a list of individuals he believed should be investigated.
“If he listened to me and undertook a root and branch reform of the country, went after Uhuru's 4 dollar billionaires, jailed Governors who stole billions of public funds, went after and jailed JurisPESA judges right from the Supreme Court down to magistrates,” he said.
Ahmednasir further criticised what he described as a deficit in law and order, arguing that criminality and disorder had become increasingly normalised.
Despite those concerns, the senior counsel credited Ruto's administration with achievements in several areas, including the economy, infrastructure, agriculture, investment and what he termed the sharing of the country's resources.
He said the government had also created a more conducive environment for investors and promoted inclusivity, while joking that the President's agricultural policies had done little for his camels at Bangal.
Ahmednasir therefore said he supports Ruto's re-election, but attached a condition to that position: the President must address the country's law-and-order challenges.
He proposed that a major crackdown on judicial corruption should begin after the 2027 election, suggesting May 1, 2028, as the start date for what he called a “radical bloody surgery” of corrupt judicial officials.
His remarks come as Kenya's political landscape begins taking shape ahead of the 2027 presidential contest, with Ruto expected to seek a second and final term.
The President's re-election bid is likely to face a highly competitive political environment, with questions over the economy, public accountability, governance and the cost of living expected to feature prominently in the campaign.