President Ruto. Photo/Courtesy
Political commentator Onyango Okello has offered a detailed interpretation of why President William Ruto prevailed in the 2022 General Election despite Raila Odinga enjoying the full backing of former president Uhuru Kenyatta.
His argument centres on early political positioning, institutional influence, and strategic engagement with key power centres within the state.
According to Okello, many within the ODM camp continue to question how an incumbent president, with vast state resources at his disposal, failed to deliver victory for Raila.
He argues, however, that this view overlooks a more critical reality: that Ruto had already secured the backing of the system years before the election, as early as 2017, immediately after Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election.
Okello contends that once Uhuru secured his second term, the underlying political machinery shifted towards ensuring Ruto would succeed him.
He maintains that even the 2018 Handshake between Uhuru and Raila did not alter this trajectory.
In his view, Ruto’s early negotiations and assurances to influential actors within government insulated his path to power.
He points to Ruto’s initial appointments in the finance and security sectors as evidence.
In the financial sphere, Okello highlights the appointment of Prof Njuguna Ndung’u as Treasury CS and the continued influence of Central Bank Governor Kamau Thugge, both figures closely associated with Uhuru’s administration.
He further claims Thugge played a role in introducing Ruto to international financial institutions, including the IMF, which later exerted significant influence over Kenya’s fiscal policy during Ruto’s first year in office.
On security, Okello notes that figures trusted by Uhuru, including NIS Director-General Noordin Haji and former National Security Adviser Monica Juma, retained or gained powerful positions under Ruto.
He contrasts this with the removal of officials seen as firmly loyal to Uhuru, such as former DCI George Kinoti and former IG Hillary Mutyambai.
Okello concludes that while Uhuru publicly gave Raila his full support, it was ultimately ineffective because the state machinery had already aligned itself with Ruto.
In his assessment, Ruto’s early and calculated engagement with the system, rather than last-minute political endorsements, proved decisive.